Predicting playoff probabilities using various publicly available advanced metrics.
Choose the 1st team and the 2nd team and you'll get the probabilities for that combination. You can get probabilities for any combination of playoff teams.
For detailed explanation and methodology, scroll down to the bottom of the page.
For the metric models, each one of the metrics is multiplied by projected minutes (provided by @AmericanNumbers), summed up by team to get projected team impact ratings for each metric. These projected team impact ratings for each metric are then used to predict playoff game outcomes (using the team rating, opponent team rating and which team was at home). This generates probabilities for each team to win a playoff game at home and on the road. Then each series is simulated 10,000 times using these probablities to get series probabilities.
All of these models were run for every possible matchup combination that can happen in this 2025 playoffs, including possible Finals matchups. Tiebreakers like opponent conference record for a possible Nuggets-Pacers series were also included (the teams split their season series).